For those wondering about UConn’s NCAA tournamentchances, consider these words from – of all people – Jeff Hathaway: “Who’d youplay, where’d you play them, how’d you do?”
In a nutshell, that’s the criteria the 10-man NCAADivision 1 men’s basketball selection committee, chaired by Hathaway, will moststrongly consider when picking this year’s tourney field.
Hathaway, the deposed former UConn athletic director, repeatedthat phrase, mantra-like, during a conference call a couple of weeks ago designed to highlight the NCAA's new-found transparency regarding the process. (Yes, the words "Jeff Hathaway" and "transparency" are rarely synonymous, but we digress). At ncaa.org, all the information that the selection committee will be looking at -- the "nitty-gritty" of every team, as well as each program's "team sheets" (they're alphabetical, scroll down a bit for UConn's) -- is available to the public, as well.
(Of course, all this information was supposed to be updated daily, we were told, but the nitty-gritty page is through Friday's games and the team sheets are only through Feb. 12. Still, it's more info that in the past.)
Essentially,what Hathaway was saying is that a team’s Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) willbe the biggest factor in determining invitations to this year’s Big Dance. I don't necessarily agree with it, but that appears to be the case.
The RPI takes into account a team’s winning percentage(25 percent), its opponents' strength of schedule (50 percent) and itsopponents' opponents’ strength of schedule (25 percent). It’s worth noting thatthe RPI formula also weighs road wins more than it does home wins, while homelosses detract more than road losses.
Through games played Saturday (including the Huskies’heartbreaking, two-point loss to No. 2 Syracuse at Gampel Pavilion), UConn’s RPI was still No. 27 in the land. That’s as good as any of the other NCAAtourney “bubble” teams.
Other factors, obviously, come into play with committeemembers: the “eyeball” test, how a team’s been playing entering the tournament,how a team has fared without a key injured player, etc. (And yes, Hathaway mustleave the room when UConn – or any Big East team, for that matter – is beingdiscussed during the selection process. Hathaway currently serves as a Big East adviser, working predominately from his home).
Personally, I think how a team is playing entering the tourney should weigh heavily. If the tourney were tomorrow, UConn would be 3-7 in its last 10. Its last real good win came well over a month ago. Sorry, that doesn't pass muster in my book. But my book's not the one that counts here.
Personally, I think how a team is playing entering the tourney should weigh heavily. If the tourney were tomorrow, UConn would be 3-7 in its last 10. Its last real good win came well over a month ago. Sorry, that doesn't pass muster in my book. But my book's not the one that counts here.
In the end, it largely comes down to: Who’d you play,where’d you play them, how’d you do?
So where does that leave UConn? Let’s take a look:
Who’d you play?The toughest schedule in America. Hard to believe, considering all thepreseason detractors, but UConn’s strength of schedule remains No. 1 in all theland. Many of the Huskies’ non-conference foes – Florida State, Harvard,Central Florida, Arkansas, even Wagner – wound up being better than expected.Add that to the rigors of Big East play, and no one’s played a tougher schedulethan the Huskies.
With remaining games against lowly Providence (RPI 155),Pittsburgh (86) and likely a conference weaker sister in the first round of theBig East tournament, UConn’s strength of schedule ranking should take a dip,but likely no more than a couple of spots.
Where’d you playthem? UConn has won three games away from home against RPI Top 50 teams: FloridaState (20) in the Bahamas, at Notre Dame (39) and at South Florida (47, priorto Sunday’s win over Cincinnati). The Huskies’ worst home loss of the seasoncame against Cincinnati (72, prior to Sunday’s loss). UConn’s worst lossoverall, at Rutgers, came on the road.
How’d you do? Againstthe RPI Top 50, the Huskies are 6-7. They’re 3-3 at home against such teams,2-4 on the road and 1-0 on a neutral floor.
They’re 2-3 against RPI 51-100 teams – 2-1 at home, 0-1on the road and 0-1 on a neutral floor – and 9-1 against everybody else.
Add it all up and UConn is still in the NCAA tournament –as of today. Even ESPN “bracketologist” guru Joe Lunardi agrees, apparently even as a 10th seed. But the keywords are “as of today.” Beat Providence and Pitt and the Huskies are 19-11overall, 9-9 in the Big East and almost certainly in – though it would behoovethem to avoid a first-round Big East tourney upset. Of course, UConn has yet towin three straight games against Big East teams this season.
Lose one of the next two and UConn would likely need to win at least two games, maybe three, in the Big East tournament to safelyget back on the right side of the bubble. Lose them both and just about theonly way UConn could get a chance to defend its national title would be to winfive games in five days at Madison Square Garden.
And we all know that could never happen, right?
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